Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.036859 0.042088 0.047835 0.054628 0.062446 0.071173 0.081668
2024-12-22 0.028319 0.035244 0.043571 0.054350 0.067980 0.084700 0.106860
2024-12-29 0.024538 0.032372 0.042383 0.056177 0.074789 0.099173 0.133773
2025-01-05 0.020607 0.028473 0.039025 0.054310 0.076042 0.106074 0.151131
2025-01-12 0.017943 0.025798 0.036785 0.053403 0.078133 0.113935 0.170350
2025-01-19 0.015498 0.023068 0.034051 0.051306 0.078037 0.118366 0.184750
2025-01-26 0.014541 0.022368 0.034125 0.053279 0.084117 0.132527 0.215651
2025-02-02 0.013709 0.021739 0.034192 0.055177 0.090195 0.147246 0.249168
2025-02-09 0.012975 0.021165 0.034254 0.057015 0.096301 0.162583 0.285531
2025-02-16 0.011906 0.019925 0.033092 0.056657 0.098598 0.171666 0.311959
2025-02-23 0.011095 0.019026 0.032392 0.056980 0.102054 0.183044 0.343833
2025-03-02 0.010200 0.017892 0.031169 0.056227 0.103449 0.190785 0.369700
2025-03-09 0.009686 0.017397 0.031050 0.057520 0.108877 0.206816 0.414257
2025-03-16 0.008946 0.016427 0.029988 0.056948 0.110705 0.216212 0.446826
2025-03-23 0.008619 0.016184 0.030230 0.058883 0.117628 0.236379 0.504483
2025-03-30 0.007836 0.015002 0.028586 0.056920 0.116441 0.239899 0.526646
2025-04-06 0.007254 0.014154 0.027503 0.055967 0.117214 0.247536 0.558879
2025-04-13 0.006591 0.013089 0.025896 0.053764 0.115076 0.248655 0.576254
2025-04-20 0.006433 0.013026 0.026297 0.055837 0.122465 0.271538 0.648100
2025-04-27 0.006273 0.012945 0.026648 0.057831 0.129891 0.295356 0.725597
2025-05-04 0.006114 0.012849 0.026959 0.059763 0.137381 0.320192 0.809219
2025-05-11 0.005765 0.012316 0.026283 0.059387 0.139399 0.332211 0.861412
2025-05-18 0.005501 0.011946 0.025932 0.059726 0.143169 0.348935 0.928517